How to Read a Map: Uganda's Lakes and Rivers
In this post we will explore select key steps in the process of analyzing an operating environment using Uganda as a sort of test case. We will begin by looking at its physical environment from key geographic features to climate zones in an effort to understand how they might shape human behavior and, ultimately, culture and social structures. We will then proceed to adding some brief context related to history and culture, highlighting the importance of understanding these factors in particular regions of interest within the country. Finally, we will provide some thoughts on why this is an important and useful exercise for many tasks ranging from geopolitical risk analysis to market entry research and strategic due diligence. As always, we begin by looking at some maps.
Start with the environment
We begin with looking at the physical environment, as it has significant implications for everything from population patterns to trade and economic development.
Key Geographic Features
As covered previously in my posts on Nigeria and Iran, key geographic features like mountains and rivers can have a significant influence on human behavior and, consequently on cultural and social development. Mountains, for example, can serve as protective barriers and/or obstacles to trade and interchange. Similarly, rivers often serve as trade routes, water sources (for drinking and agriculture), fishing grounds, and even protective barriers. Let's have an initial look at Uganda below.
Among the most obvious features we notice in Uganda is the presence of lakes and rivers (See Fig. 1). Lake Victoria, due to its size, is among the most prominent, but we can also see that Lake Albert, Lake Edward, and Lake Kyoga--which, while not one of the Great Lakes, is often included as part of the Great Lakes system--feature prominently in Uganda's geography, along with the rivers that feed them (See Fig. 2).
We cannot exhaustively explore these lakes and rivers, but just from our first two maps we can point to several prominent features.
First, Lake Victoria is likely to be a key point of geostrategic and commercial importance. It offers easy access to what is now Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda in addition to counting Rwanda and Burundi among the countries in its basin.
In fact, British interest in Lake Victoria becomes very clear when we look at a map of the Uganda Railway on which construction began not long after the British secured their interests in Uganda by signing a treaty with the Buganda Kingdom (more on that later). We can see below that the British clearly understood the advantage of connecting the Indian Ocean (via Mombasa) to Lake Victoria (See Fig.3). Whether for the transport of goods, troops, or anything else, this was a vital route and, by extension, a vital waterway.
Second, there are many rivers at play in Uganda (See Fig. 2). We would expect that, where navigable, Uganda's rivers might serve as trade routes and that, generally, rivers and lakes would serve to either facilitate trade/agriculture/fishing and/or as protective barriers. Perhaps most noticeable among Uganda's rivers are the tributaries of the Nile (See Fig. 2). While the Nile itself is not entirely navigable, its importance to British interests in Egypt cannot be understated.
To wit, steamer/shipping services developed almost immediately after the completion of the Uganda Railway expanding service up the Nile into Lake Kyoga. In fact, it was the British zeal for finding the source of the Nile that led expeditioners into Uganda and, ultimately, to Lake Victoria. But before we add historical context, let's continue exploring Uganda's geography.
Topography
When we look at Uganda's topography we see that most of the country is essentially a plateau that is hemmed in by mountains. In fact, the Ugandan plateau descends in some parts as we move towards the north and northwest (See Fig. 4).
Based on the above, we would expect populations to generally cluster around: (i.) major waterways that could serve as significant trade routes or fishing grounds (e.g. Lake Victoria); (ii.) bodies of water (and their adjacent fertile lowlands) as they provide access to water for agriculture, fishing, and drinking (e.g. Lake Edward, Lake Albert, and the Albert Nile) (See Fig. 2); and, (iii.) mountains that might serve to provide natural protection against invaders.
Climate
Adding context about Uganda's climate zones (See Fig. 5) further reinforces some of these expectations. That is, we would expect temperate (Cfb) climates (shown in light green below) with their even rainfall patterns to attract people due to their climate stability and its implications for agricultural and other activities. By contrast, lower elevation tropical savannahs with their open areas might encourage more migratory or pastoralist population movements among those living in such regions. The draw of Lake Victoria for fishing and trade is obvious, but perhaps its evening breezes in an otherwise tropical rainforest climate are also attractive.
Looking at early population density maps--such as the below map of population densities based on the 1959 census--confirms many of the expectations set forth above (See Fig. 6).
How Key Geographic Features, Topography, and Climate influence Population Density
Compare the below map (Fig. 6) with the map at Figure 2 above.
The advantages and draw of Lake Victoria: Note the increased population density in the south near Lake Victoria, especially in the area of Kampala (purple) as well as along the banks of the Victoria Nile as it flows northward from Lake Victoria.
The protective advantages of mountains and rivers and draw of temperate climates: Note, the clusters around Mount Elgon in the southeast and Mount Stanley/Mount Ngaliema in the southwest where Lake Edward and adjacent rivers also seem attractive.
The draw of fertile lowlands adjacent to rivers (and, again, protective mountains): Note the clustering around Lake Kyoga and around the northwest lowlands adjacent to the White/Albert Nile, especially where they are hemmed by the Rwenzori Mountains between DRC and Uganda. Notably, as we move away and outwardly from Lake Victoria the population density seems to become for diffuse in areas like Lango and Bunyoro even where we see an affinity for river or lake access.
The migratory patterns (i.e. lower population density) encouraged by the open tropical savannah: Finally, note the reduction in population density as we move north into areas like Acholi. In the pre-colonial era this region was, in fact, sparsely populated with a tendency towards decentralized governance structures and frequent population migration.
The Importance of this Analysis
Why is all this context important? Why is it important that geography and climate ultimately affect where and how people live?
First, because we ignore geography at our peril. The geographic and climate features we've explored in Uganda inevitably affect human behavior in different ways. Over time, these different behaviors 'solidify' as part of local cultures and social structures. Second, because it will allow us to further contextualize our analysis of the operating environment and, ultimately, ask smarter questions in the context of our particular project, whether it's a geopolitical analysis or not.
In the vast open areas of Uganda's northern tropical savannahs humans must hunt for food and perhaps only later organize into smaller villages around agricultural and pastoralist activities. Even then, they may need to move hunting grounds and rotate agricultural activity to other land frequently. That is, there is a tendency toward more migration and itinerant activity encouraged by the physical environment; this may, in turn, encourage less centralized governance structures such as smaller villages or clans with an independent streak and tendency to distrust outsiders with whom they may compete for scarce resources or land.
By contrast, in a region with higher population density and foreign trade ties (like Lake Victoria) humans will need a certain openness to outsiders. Eventually, to scale up trade, they will require clear rules and enforcement mechanisms. Thus, they we might expect that they will eventually develop a tendency toward more centralized governance structures. In other words, Uganda's geography will have a sociological and cultural influence. Knowing this, we can seek to add further context to inform our work. Again, this is more an overview than an exhaustive analysis, we could, for instance consider whether there are historical data on soil fertility and productivity to further reinforce our analysis.
Add Context
Now that we've had an initial look at Uganda's geography, we can begin to add social, historical, and cultural context that will further enhance our understanding of the operating environment. Again, these are general guidelines and should be adapted on a case-by-case basis.
History and Ethnic Relations
My preferred starting point is to get a sense of the country's modern political history and then move further into the past perhaps focusing on sub-regions of interest. In sub-Saharan Africa, understanding a country's modern political history means we typically want to get a sense of the pre-colonial, colonial, and post-independence periods and the story they tell. In many cases, these are inevitably tied into the relations and history of various ethnic groups within the country in question. In the case of Uganda, for the sake of brevity, I will only highlight some salient points; this should be taken as a very light overview for our purposes.
Uganda's modern political history has been marred by ethnic conflict and a lack of democracy. In fact, it might be said the country has never experienced prolonged and peaceful, consolidated democratic rule.
When the British began consolidating colonial rule in the 1890s their key geostrategic interest was in Lake Victoria due both to its importance as a regional trade hub and to its relationship to the Nile. In other words, Uganda's geographic features ultimately influenced both the behavior of its peoples and that of global power players. The British saw the orderly, centralized Buganda Kingdom, which had regional trade tides and a welcoming king as an ideal place to start (See Fig. 7). The Baganda clans had been united under a centralized kingship for several hundred years by then. And so, it was there that British colonial ambitions first took root with Baganda chiefs signing a treaty agreeing to protectorate status in exchange for freehold land.
The British subsequently expanded Buganda's territory and set up subdivisions during the Protectorate era (See Fig. 8). They saw Buganda's existing and generous access to Lake Victoria's coast as a significant asset and almost immediately set to work connecting the lake to Mombasa (See Fig. 3 above).
In contrast to regions like Buganda, Ankole, Bunyoro, and Toro, the northern subdivisions like West Nile, Acholi, and Karamoja (in khaki) did not develop centralized kingdoms. For example, in pre-colonial Acholi there were a number of politically-independent chiefdoms, each comprised of a number of clans. Chiefs were responsible for protecting their subjects from outside aggressors, keeping the peace, and enforcing precedents set by tribal elders. Each clan was led by a clan elder and villages, in turn, had their own local leaders. Those joining a chiefdom were not expected to sacrifice their individual freedom and could communicate directly with authority figures. The general governance structures were rather different from the centralized kingdoms of the south.
What we see here as a north-south pre-colonial division in terms of centralization of governance structures, also extends to the language families of Uganda (See Fig. 9), with speakers of languages from the Bantu family concentrated in the south and Nilotic/Sudanic language families in the north.
The era of British colonial administration further cemented the existing ethnic and linguistic divisions by adding a dimension of discriminatory economic development policy. Because the British were primarily interested in the south, they focused on economic development there. Northerners were typically peasants or farmers and most of the educational and economic development was focused in the south. This legacy persists today with northern regions of Uganda having a far lower sub-national Human Development Index than regions in the south.
It was something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The British considered regions like Acholi to be among the most backward in Uganda. They also stereotyped northern ethnic groups like the Acholi as militaristic ('good hunters') and pushed them into military and police forces like the King's African Rifles. Even into the 1980s, most significant landowners in Uganda were heirs or relatives of the Baganda that received freehold land under the British. These colonial policies further cemented ethnic tensions and fractionalization in Uganda such that the country's post-independence politics have been marked by these tensions.
At the risk of oversimplifying what can only be a cursory review for the sake of brevity, key geographic features and climate in Uganda influenced culture and social structures. The divide extended to ethnic, linguistic, cultural, and governance dimensions even in the pre-colonial era.
But it was British colonial administration that highlighted and exacerbated the existing differences between Uganda's peoples and created dynamics of tension leaving post-independence Uganda with a legacy of violence and conflict. Thus, post-independence Ugandan political history has been marked by conflict, often framed in ethnic terms, even from its earliest days. It was subjected to a cruel 'ping-pong' of ethnic conflict, revenge, and state-sponsored violence for decades.
Early on, it was Milton Obote (1966-1971), a northerner of the Lango ethnic group, who earned the enmity of the Baganda by abolishing their monarchy, sending Idi Amin to attack the king's palace, and placing Buganda under martial law, for example. Amin's subsequent coup brought attempts to purge the military of Lango and Acholi along with other atrocities and ethnic persecution. After Amin was deposed on the heels of the Uganda-Tanzania War, Obote returned, and so too did reports of Lango and Acholi troops seeking revenge on Bantu peoples in the south along with copious atrocities and deaths. Yoweri Museveni sought to leverage some of these ethnic tensions in his guerrilla campaign against Obote. But even after his rise to power, Museveni's government was plagued by Joseph Kony, an Acholi, known for founding the northern rebel group the Lord's Resistance Army, who led an insurgency against the government. Museveni's government placed millions of northerners, including 90% of the Acholi population, in displaced persons camps between roughly 1996 and 2006. Many Acholi later returned to their ancestral lands to find these had been subjected to 'land-grabbing' by outsiders and powerful interests.
I mention all of this as a way of highlighting not only the importance of understanding the overarching modern political history of the country and the trends that shaped it, but also to point out that the regional dynamics are important. That is, you should also be looking into the particular region of interest and any salient historical and cultural aspects there. For instance, with the issue of land disputes in northern Uganda, we can say that resolution of post-conflict land disputes was made all the more complicated by the fact that, in most of Uganda, land is not titled but rather held by customary tenure and subject to customary law; this is no less true in the country's north. Governing customary law may differ from one community to the next, and so customs and culture provide an extra layer of sub-national complexity to any analysis or potential project in Uganda. Let's have a brief look at the Acholi, as an example.
Culture: a regional example pertaining to land
Acholi retained something of the legacy of its decentralized pre-colonial governance structures even post-independence. With a complex societal structure comprised of some 54 principal clans and sometimes further sub-clans, the role of traditional leaders--especially given that, in Acholi, land is typically collectively managed according to the traditions of particular clans--remains important.
Both in Acholi and in Uganda writ large, polls suggest there is a tendency towards greater trust in traditional leaders. In Acholi, there are typically traditional leaders at the chiefdom, clan and village level and, somewhat more recently, a Paramount Chief as of 2005. The point is that land disputes in this region have a tendency to be settled by customary law and local/traditional authorities, or, at least, this tends to be a preferred route for dispute resolution.
Why is this important?
Suppose for a moment you are considering starting or investing in some sort of land-intensive industry in northern Uganda. Well, culture and history matter. Having all of the above context, as highly condensed as it is, allows us inject strategic thinking into our process and better provide strategic depth to any analysis on just about any project from geopolitical risk to market entry or due diligence.
And with that, we can ask some relevant questions when considering a land-intensive venture in northern Uganda.
Should you send a high-powered lawyer from Kampala to deal with local authorities on issues of land use for your project up north?
How much time have you dedicated to understanding the local power players and dynamics that affect your potential project over and above national government policy?
Have you mapped your local level stakeholders and considered the risks they bring to the table?
Have you allocated sufficient resources to community relations, understanding how customary law in the area where you will operate governs land use? Do you know the local village authorities? What about those at the county, sub-county, parish, and district level?
Have you considered whether your project may inflame tensions with the local community or between clans or other players?
Have you considered how underdevelopment and any lingering security issues in the north may affect your operations or their logistics?
Just like that, a project that may have started with a rather narrow question set now includes a much broader set of perhaps the most 'dangerous' kinds of questions from a risk advisory perspective--the ones we may not have known to ask in the first place.
Conclusion
We have seen that analyzing an operating environment is not necessarily a simple task, but it's a worthwhile one. There is a complex interplay between geography, climate, history, culture, and societies. Geography and climate shape human behavior and, by extension, human culture and social structures. This is no less true in Uganda.
Taking the time to understand the geographic, historical, cultural and social context of the country and even sub-national region of interest is a critical step in the success of projects ranging from geopolitical risk analysis to strategic due diligence. This sort of analysis provides us with critical context that we can use to ask more informed, intelligent questions and, ultimately, to mitigate risks. Because the most dangerous questions from a risk advisory perspective are often the ones we don't know to ask in the first place.
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